• The strengthening U.S. dollar, rising treasury yields, and extended U.S. debt ceiling until 2025 exerted downward pressure on gold prices, which closed May at $1,982.10/oz. (-0.85% MoM). Strong U.S. economic data, including increased consumer spending and persistent inflation, raised the probability of a 25 basis points hike in the June FOMC meeting to 65% at one point, up from 24% a month ago, dimming the outlook for the shiny metal.
  • Apart from the mentioned bearish factors, weak industrial demand caused a 6.5% drop in silver prices, closing May at $23.585/oz., a significant decrease in managed money long positions was also observed.
  • China’s disappointing manufacturing data, along with weak demand for copper, resulted in a second consecutive monthly decline of 6.52% MoM, with copper prices settling in May at $3.637/lb. This marks the largest monthly decline since June 2022.
  • MGC Q2’23 average daily volume (ADV) rose by approximately 25% compared to Q1’23, surpassing 85,000 contracts. SIL ADV also experienced growth of around 7% during the same period. Additionally, MHG May’23 average daily open interest (ADOI) reached a historical high of 2,632 contracts, more than doubling from 1,016 contracts a year ago. The consistent growth in liquidity provides participants with effective risk management for price and key event risks.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from May 1 to May 31, 2023)

Key Economic Events in June/July 2023:

Key Economic Event




U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jun 1, 10.00 a.m.

Jun 1, 3.00 p.m.

Jun 1, 10.00 p.m.

U.S. Non- Farm Payrolls

Jun 2, 8.30 a.m.

Jun 2, 1.30 p.m.

Jun 2, 8.30 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Jun 6, 11.00 p.m.

Jun 7, 4.00 a.m.

Jun 7, 11.00 a.m.

U.S. Balance of Trade

Jun 7, 8.30 a.m.

Jun 7, 1.30p.m.

Jun 7, 8.30 p.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Jun 8, 9.30 p.m.

Jun 9, 2.30 a.m.

Jun 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Jun 13, 8.30 a.m.

Jun 13, 1.30 p.m.

Jun 13, 8.30 p.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference

Jun 14, 2.00 p.m.

Jun 14, 7.00 p.m.

Jun 15, 2.00 a.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Jun 29, 9.30 p.m.

Jun 30, 2.30 a.m.

Jun 30, 9.30 a.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Jul 2, 9.45 p.m.

Jul 3, 1.45 a.m.

Jul 3, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jul 3, 10.00 a.m.

Jul 3, 2.00 p.m.

Jul 3, 10.00 p.m.

FOMC Minutes

Jul 5, 2.00 p.m.

Jul 5, 6.00 p.m.

Jul 6, 2.00 a.m.

U.S. Balance of Trade

Jul 6, 8.30 a.m.

Jul 6, 12.30 p.m.

Jul 6, 8.30 p.m.

U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-F Farm Payrolls

Jul 7, 8.30 a.m.

Jul 7, 12.30 p.m.

Jul 7, 8.30 p.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Jul 9, 9.30 p.m.

Jul 10, 1.30 a.m.

Jul 10, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Jul 12, 8.30 a.m.

Jul 12, 12.30 p.m.

Jul 12, 8.30 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Jul 12, 11.00 p.m.

Jul 13, 3.00 a.m.

Jul 13, 11.00 a.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference

Jul 26, 2.00 p.m.

Jul 26, 6.00 p.m.

Jul 27, 2.00 a.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Jul 30, 9.30 p.m.

Jul 31, 1.30 a.m.

Jul 31, 9.30 a.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Jul 31, 9.45 p.m.

Aug 1, 1.45 a.m.

Aug 1, 9.45 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

Useful resources

Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.

Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.

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