- Following a lower fed-funds rate hike back in December 2022, U.S. reported inflation rate of 6.5% in the same month, which is down 0.6% MoM. Coupled with weakening U.S. dollar, gold price broke through $1,900/oz. in January, a price level not seen since June 2022, and achieved a MoM growth of 5.6% to close the month around $1,945/oz.
- January’s micro gold (MGC) ADV was 62.6k contracts, its highest level since March 2022 and a 40% increase from Q4 2022.
- After two consecutive months of double-digit growth, silver price hovered around $24/oz. throughout January before closing the month at $23.835/oz., down 0.85% MoM and underperforming its bigger sibling gold.
- Since the start of January, China’s reopening of border has led to copper prices soaring above $4/lb. with market participants expecting increased copper demand for potential real estate recovery. Copper prices eventually closed the month at $4.226/lb., up 10.9% MoM.
- Micro copper (MHG) started 2023 with highest monthly ADV record of 5,463 contracts. This was 25% higher than the previous record set back in November 2022.
MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)
*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).
Options Heatmap (Change in OI from January 3 to January 31, 2023)
Key Economic Events in February/March 2023:
- February 1 – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 8:45 a.m. SGT / HK
- February 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI 1:00 p.m. SGT / HK
- February 2 – Fed Interest Rate Decision 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- February 3 – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- February 7 – U.S. Balance of Trade 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- February 10 – China Inflation Rate YoY 8:30 a.m. SGT / HK
- February 14 – U.S. Inflation Numbers 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- February 23 – FOMC Minutes 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 1 – China NBS Manufacturing PMI 8:30 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 1 – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 8:45 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI 10:00 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 7 – China Balance of Trade 10:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 8 – U.S. Balance of Trade 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 9 – China Inflation Rate YoY 8:30 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 10 – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 14 – U.S. Inflation Numbers 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 15 – China Industrial Production YoY 10:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- March 23 – Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Economic Projections 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
Useful resources
Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.
Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.
The data and output from this tool does not constitute investment advice and is not a personal recommendation from CME Group. Nothing contained herein constitutes the solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Any investment activities undertaken using this tool will be at the sole risk of the relevant investor. CME Group expressly disclaims all liability for the use or interpretation (whether by visitor or by others) of information contained herein. Decisions based on this information are the sole responsibility of the relevant investor. Any visitor to this page agrees to hold the CME Group and its affiliates and licensors harmless against any claims for damages arising from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information.
