• Following the FOMC announcement of 75 basis points hike at the start of November, gold price dropped to ~$1,630/oz., a relatively low price level in recent years. Things took a turn with higher-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls release, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, leading to market optimism that the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive going into the next FOMC meeting. As a result, gold price recovered and ended November at $1,746/oz., up 6.42% MoM.
  • Following the upward momentum of gold, silver rallied to ~$22/oz. in mid-November, beating the recent high of ~$21/oz. set back in October. Silver price ended November around $21.55/oz., up by 12.72% MoM, with overall managed money net positions now sitting in the positive territory.
  • With China loosening its COVID-19 policy and the market seeing potential demand recovery, copper prices rallied to ~$3.90/lb. in mid-November, a price level not seen since July of this year. However, the rare protest due to major cities lockdown caused by increasing COVID-19 cases seems to affect the positive copper outlook for the rest of the month, and copper prices ended the month at around $3.73/lb., up 10.5% MoM.
  • Micro copper achieved the highest daily volume record on November 4, with 7,845 contracts. November is the best month for MHG since launch with Average Daily Volume of 4,381 contracts and Average Daily Open Interest of 2,122 contracts. These records show clear interest from market participants in utilizing MHG as a tool for both hedging and risk-taking purpose.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options heatmap (change in OI from November 1 to November 30, 2022)

Key Economic Events in December 2022 and January 2023:

  • December 1 – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 8:45 a.m. SGT / HK
  • December 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI 10:00 p.m. SGT / HK
  • December 2 – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
  • December 6 – U.S Balance of Trade 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
  • December 7 – China Balance of Trade 10:00 a.m. SGT / HK
  • December 9 – China Inflation rate YoY 8:30 a.m. SGT / HK
  • December 13 – U.S. Inflation Numbers 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
  • December 15 - Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Press Conference 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
  • December 15 – China Industrial Production YoY 9:00 a.m. SGT / HK
  • January 1 – China NBS Manufacturing PMI 8:30 a.m. SGT / HK
  • January 5 – FOMC Minutes 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK

 

Useful resources

Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.

Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.



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