Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices rose slightly to end a week that saw another 25 basis point hike to the Fed Funds target rate and another week of big price moves in US Treasury yields.  It wasn’t just interest rates markets that saw active price movement this week though; gold and foreign currency futures had some relatively large daily moves as well.  As we often do on Fridays, we look back on the net price and volatility change in some of CME’s major products using CVOL and QuikStrike data in the chart below. 

  • E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices were up by around 1% and volatility in the options markets declined.
  • WTI Crude Oil prices rose by over 3% on the week but remain below $70 per barrel.  The CVOL level in the options market dropped by about 12%. 
  • The Micro 10-Year Yield wound up just a couple basis points lower on the week, though the weekly range was much larger.  The Micro 2-Year Yield dropped by nearly 10 basis points, which brings the inversion to less than 40 points; the smallest it’s been in months (this is pictured in the lower graph below).  The CVOL level in the 2-Year Yield is trading near the highest levels since at least the end of 2013 (the earliest dates for which we have CVOL data). 
  • CVOL levels in the Soybean options jumped as we head into next Friday’s Prospective Plantings report, which has market moving potential for those markets. 

So that’s where we sit as we head into the last week of a volatile March.  We will be back on Monday to report on whether the month looks to go out like a lion or a lamb.  Have a safe and happy weekend and we’ll see you next week.  

Today's Future Price Action

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