Key Takeaways with Craig
US Equity prices rallied, Treasury yields fell and the Dollar fell versus most major currencies after the FOMC announcement that it was holding its Fed Funds target steady but indicating that it might begin cutting it next year. Specifically,
- The Dow Jones Industrials were up by over 500 points and closed above 37,000 for the first time in history.
- CME’s Micro 2-Year Treasury Yield future fell by nearly 27 basis points. The Micro 10-Year fell by about 19 basis points, narrowing that inversion to about 36 bps.
Perhaps related to the decline in yields:
- In CME’s FX Futures markets, the Aussie Dollar was up by 1.75%, the CAD was up by .72%, the Euro by .84% and the Yen rallied 1.75% against the US Dollar.
- Gold futures prices rallied 2.3% to nearly $2,040 per ounce.
- Implied volatility in CME’s E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 was little changed but remains near low levels we last saw in January, 2020, prior to COVID-19 being declared a pandemic
- CVOL, Futures price and Skew in CME’s Gold markets all jumped at 2:00 PM Eastern time today when the FOMC decision was announced. This is depicted in the Top CVOL graph below.
- Skew in the Treasury options (based on Yield) shifted toward the Puts, but CVOL levels diverged in the 2-Year vs 10-Year options. The lower graph below shows that CVOL in the 2-Year increased while it declined in the 10-Years.
In short, the last FOMC announcement of 2023 certainly didn’t disappoint if you were looking for some market moving news. Have a great evening and we’ll be back tomorrow.
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