Key Takeaways with Craig

The CME TreasuryWatch Tool provides a quick and comprehensive overview of important market information in one clean, concise view. The tool consists of nine components organized to provide a summary view, while also offering the ability to perform detailed, drill-down analysis. 

Fed Watch target rate and probability

This section provides rates and probabilities of FOMC rate moves for upcoming meetings. Probabilities of possible Fed Funds target rates are based on Fed Fund futures contract prices, assuming that rate changes occur in 25 basis point increments and that the Fed Funds Effective Rate will react by a like amount.

Treasury yields

This section displays the Treasury Yield Curve for On-The-Run Cash (ON TR) Treasuries and the Treasury Futures Yield Curve, based on the implied yields of each futures contract’s current cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) Treasury giving side-by-side insight into on-the-run vs. futures yields.

The “STIR Yields” display forward short-term interest rate yields based on several benchmark STIR futures contracts.Rates covered in the table include those for Eurodollars, Fed Funds, 1-Month SOFR, and 3-Month SOFR futures. 

Volatility Index (CVOL)

CVOL provides data from the CME Group Volatility Index for our benchmark interest rate products, derived from the liquid options on futures markets for each corresponding product – allowing you to easily track volatility trends.

Treasury auction

The Treasury auction provides historical Treasury coupon issuance auctions by size and original security term dating back to approximately 1980. Where available, the chart also includes bid-to-cover ratio for each Treasury auction.

FED balance sheet

This graphical display depicts historical levels of the US Treasury marketable debt alongside the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet total asset size and several key breakdowns in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet securities holdings. 

Gross coupon issuance

In this table, the recent and upcoming US Treasury security gross coupon and net coupon issuances are summarized. In the expanded view, prior issuances have a grey background, yellow fields indicate the amounts announced while CME Group forecasted levels have a white background.  

Debt issuance links and Fed balance sheet links

Using the debt issuance and Fed balance sheet links, key resources for additional information and data relevant to the US Treasury Security Markets are available.

Economic releases

Through economic releases, users can view upcoming economic events and key releases. A detailed economic event calendar can be displayed showing previous, consensus, forecasts, and actual data points.

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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