At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
Well that was quite a start to October! Strong jobs reports, higher interest rates and volatile equity prices characterized the market action this week. Stocks initially sold off after this morning’s release of the September Employment situation report but had largely recovered by mid-morning and wound up higher on the day. Below is our recap of weekly net price and volatility changes generated using QuikStrike and CVOL data and shows higher implied volatility almost across the board.
- After some “down and up” action, E-mini S&P 500 prices wound up slightly higher and the Nasdaq-100 was up by about 2%. Implied volatility came back to near steady on the week.
- WTI Crude Oil futures prices sold off sharply and, even with an uptick today, were down by about 12% on the week. CVOL levels increased.
- Gold prices were little changed but CVOL levels rose from multi-year lows.
- US Treasury yields continued to rise, particularly on the longer end of the curve, bringing the magnitude of the 2s vs 10s inversion down to just over 20 basis points. CVOL in the Treasury options rose sharply. CME’s FedWatch tool is still pricing in no change to the Fed Funds target rate in 2023, but the probability for a 25 basis point hike increased slightly today.
- Natural Gas futures prices and options volatility both increased substantially.
So we head into the second week of October in a high volatility interest rate environment but with a week-end rally in stocks. Have a safe and happy weekend and we’ll see you on Monday!
Todays Featured Videos
Today's Future Price Action
Traders Resources
The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.
This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.
