Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity markets saw strong gains on the last day of the last full week of July trading.  All four major US Indexes rallied today while implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options markets fell.  In fact, lower volatility characterizes almost all of CME’s options markets as you can see in the weekly recap below that was compiled, as usual, with QuikStrike and CVOL data. 

  • US Equity Index prices rose and implied volatility in the options fell to near recent lows. 
  • Bitcoin implied volatility, at 33.5%, is the lowest it’s been since CME listed options on Bitcoin Futures.
  • WTI Crude Oil CVOL is trading near 2-year lows.
  • Gold CVOL is at the lowest level since right before the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • After widening to about 100 basis points earlier in the week, the inversion between the Micro 2-Year and 10-Year yield was trading at about 92 bps today.
  • Euro FX CVOL traded higher during July but, at 7.1, is still well below the 2023 average closing level of about 8.
  • After rising by nearly 10% today, Corn CVOL was up by about 3% on the week. Not included in our graphic, Wheat volatility has come off of highs earlier in the week when the futures price traded at its limit price on Monday, but still remains elevated relative to the last 9 months. 
  • Nat Gas CVOL continues to trade near 1+ year low levels.

With one more trading day left in July on Monday, we’ll be back then with a recap on the month.  Have a safe and happy summer weekend and try to stay cool!  

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

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