Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity Indexes rallied today after the Senate passed the debt ceiling bill yesterday and after the Department of Labor released a stronger than expected May Employment report this morning.  The rally comes despite an increase in US Treasury yields and a slight increase in the probability of a Fed Funds target rate hike at the June FOMC meeting according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

After another volatile month, somewhat driven by uncertainty around the debt ceiling negotiations, we’ve recapped the net price and volatility changes in some of CME’s major products since the last trading day in April (4/28).  The chart below was compiled using QuikStrike and CVOL data and includes the month of May and first two trading days in June. 

  • US Equity Index performance was interesting as we saw a divergence among major indexes.  E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures outperformed the E-mini S&P 500 significantly with respect to price level, but implied volatility fell in the S&P 500 options and remained steady in the Nasdaq-100 options.
  • WTI Crude Oil CVOL rose by over 20% ahead of this weekends OPEC+ meeting.
  • The Micro 10-Year Treasury future yield rose by almost 8% as did the CVOL level in the options market, though vol is off of recent highs.
  • The inversion between the Micro 10-Year and 2-Year yield widened by almost 20 basis points this month.
  • CME Grains markets CVOL is increasing as we enter the crucial summer months.
  • Implied volatility in Bitcoin options is near the lowest it’s been since CME began offering the product in the beginning of 2020. 

We hope all of our readers have a happy and safe almost-summer weekend and for those here in Chicago, enjoy the beautiful forecast!

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.