Key Takeaways with Craig

Once again, due to conference schedules this afternoon, we are writing the Key Takeaways section a bit earlier today.  While we recognize that conditions could certainly change before the trading week ends this afternoon (we’ve already seen a reversal in the stock market today), here’s the recap as of mid-day trading using QuikStrike and CVOL data:

  • US Treasury yields have moved higher this week with the Micro 10-Year Yield up by almost 20 basis points and the Micro 2-Year higher by almost 25 bps.  CVOL levels in the options markets of both tenors, while not reaching the levels we saw during the mid-March volatility, have moved demonstrably higher. 
  • While we’re on the subject of interest rates, it’s worth noting that CME’s FedWatch tool was reflecting a 33% chance of a rate hike at the June FOMC meeting yesterday, up from 10% a week ago.  However, that has fallen to 16% today as the market continues to weigh comments by Fed officials.
  • As of now, E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures prices are higher on the week, but given the intraday volatility we’ve already seen on this Friday, that could, of course, change by the time we publish.
  • CVOL levels in CME’s Agricultural products spiked higher with Soybean up by 24% and Corn up by about 20%.
  • Implied volatility in Bitcoin options dropped again this week and is approaching the lowest levels at which it’s traded since CME launched the options.

So that’s where we stand in the middle of seemingly much uncertainty around debt ceiling negotiations, Fed policy etc as we head into the weekend.  Have a safe and happy weekend and we’ll see you on Monday.

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.