Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity Index prices were mixed again today with the Nasdaq up by about .6% and the Dow Jones Industrials down slightly.  Since last Tuesday, we’ve seen a bit of divergence in the performance of some of the major US stock indexes with the Nasdaq up by over 6%, the S&P 500 up by about 2.5% and the Dow down by just a fraction.  Similarly, implied volatility in the E-mini Nasdaq-100 options traded lower today, while that in the E-mini S&P 500 options ticked higher. 

US Treasury futures remained active with both the Micro 2-Year and 10-Year Yield futures down by over 13 basis points (bps).  While the inversion between these two tenors didn’t change today, since May 4th, it has deepened from -31 bps to its current level of -77.  This is presented graphically in the top QuikStrike image below and you can learn more about it in the video by Jim Iuorio in the current edition of In FOCUS.  CVOL levels continued to move higher in most of the Treasury options markets, though did decline slightly in the 2-Year. 

Some of CME Group’s commodity markets were busy as well today as the price of WTI Crude Oil futures fell by about 4% and is trading back under $70.00 per barrel.  Implied volatility in the WTI Crude Oil options markets, as measured by CVOL, jumped from about 37.5 on Friday to about 42 today.  This is depicted in the lower CVOL graph below.  Grains markets also saw significant price action with Wheat prices down by over 4% and Soybeans down by about 3%.

Looking ahead, we have the May Employment situation report due out on Friday and, of course, the market will continue watching for signs that the debt ceiling agreement will or will not be passed in the US Congress.  

Today's Future Price Action

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