Key Takeaways with Craig

And that ends another week and another month, both of which could be characterized, generally, by a decline in volatility in CME Group options markets and by muted price changes in many of CME Group’s major products.  Of course, there were a couple of exceptions, which are noted in the summary below.  We’ve used QuikStrike and CVOL data to put together the charts below that illustrate the net price and implied volatility changes. 

  • E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices were little changed on the week and the month although the implied volatility in the options markets has declined to levels last seen in January, 2022.
  • Similarly, after a 1.5% decline in WTI Crude Oil prices this week, it was up by just over 1% on the month.  CVOL levels declined another 6% during April.
  • Even as Gold futures prices neared all-time highs earlier this month, the net change both on the week and during April was near zero.  CVOL levels fell slightly in the options markets.
  • After a 4% decline in the Micro 10-Year Yield this week, it was down by about 1.5% on the month.  Despite an uptick in options volatility this week, the monthly decline was about 10%. 
  • Grains markets bucked the trend of lower volatility as CVOL in Corn options spiked 19% this week to end up higher by 16% on the month.
  • Natural Gas price and volatility were little changed on the week, but prices were up by 8% during April while CVOL fell by nearly 30%.
  • While Bitcoin futures prices have had some large daily moves, they were up by under 3% on the month and implied volatility fell by a relative 18% in the options markets.

So even as many questions, including a potential debt ceiling debate at the Congressional and Executive level, remain, CME Group’s options markets continue to trend toward lower volatility while futures prices continue somewhat range-bound.  As always, we hope all of our In FOCUS readers have a happy and safe Spring weekend (at least for those in the Northern Hemisphere) and we’ll see you on Monday.  

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

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