Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices sold off today to end the week after a higher than inflation report was released this morning.  The Nasdaq led losses, down by over 1.5%, though off of the day’s lowest levels.  US Treasury Yields continued to move higher with the Micro 2-Year Yield rising by over 12 basis points and the Micro 10-Year rising by about 6.5.  The inversion between the two tenors was trading at over 85 basis point in late afternoon market action.  Similarly, CME’s FedWatch tool suggests a slightly higher probability for more aggressive FOMC policy. 

As we often do on Friday’s, the chart below, powered by QuikStrike and CVOL, recaps the weekly net price and volatility changes in some of CME’s major products:

  • US Equity Indexes were lower on the week.  Somewhat interestingly, implied volatility in the E-mini S&P 500 options is trading lower than it was a week ago; vol in the Nasdaq-100 is higher. 
  • US Treasury Yields are higher and the CVOL level rose by 10%.
  • Natural Gas, after a lot of up and down action, wound up 9% higher on the week.
  • Despite a drop in price of about 8% on the week in Bitcoin futures, options volatility declined by about 14%. 

So, as we head into the last couple days of February and first few trading days of March next week, that’s where we stand.  Have a wonderful weekend and we’ll see you all on Monday.  

Today's Future Price Action

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