Key Takeaways with Craig

After a quiet beginning, the week went out with a bang as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon and today’s much-stronger-than-anticipated January Employment report.  US Equity Index prices initially broke on the report but then rallied during the day before declining to end broadly lower.  Despite the decline in stock prices, implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options was near steady on the day.  Micro US Treasury Yield futures were up sharply, as was the US Dollar in CME’s FX markets and Gold futures prices were down by over 2.5% in a very active day in financial and commodity markets. 

Since we didn’t recap January earlier in the week, we thought it would make good sense to take a look at net price and volatility changes so far this year in some of CME’s major products using QuikStrike and CVOL data. 

  • Even with today’s increase, the Micro 10-Year Yield is down by nearly 9% on the year; implied volatility in the options has come off.
  • Natural Gas futures prices are down 46% on the year while CVOL levels are near steady.
  • Despite today’s substantial price decline, Gold futures are still up 3% on the year.
  • WTI Crude Oil prices have fluctuated throughout the month, but with today’s decline, are down 9%
  • Even after today’s price declines, Equity Indexes have moved sharply higher, particularly the Nasdaq, while implied volatility in the options has come down.

So, that’s where we stand one month into 2023.  We wish our readers a nice weekend and we’ll see you back here on Monday!

Today's Future Price Action

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