Key Takeaways with Craig

After beginning the day in the red, US Equity prices rallied and closed modestly higher today.  After an eventful first half of the first month of 2023, we thought we’d take a look at the net changes since the markets closed out 2022. 

  • E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices are up 4 an 5% respectively and, after a couple of days of sharp declines, implied volatility is down about 20% (on a relative basis) on the year. 
  • After some back and forth price moves, WTI Crude Oil futures are just about where they were when 2022 ended, while the CVOL level has come down slightly in the options.
  • Gold futures prices have begun the year with a substantial rally, up 6% so far.  
  • The Euro FX has gained relative to the US Dollar while volatility has fallen in the options.
  • Perhaps driving some of the Euro strength, US Treasury yields have fallen with the Micro 10-Year Yield down by over 35 basis points.
  • Natural Gas, which we’ve written about a couple of times already in the last couple weeks, has fallen by 22% while the CVOL level is up.
  • And finally, with this week’s rally, Bitcoin futures prices are up 17% and implied volatility is higher too. And with today’s move, Bitcoin options have a Call skew for the first time since last March.

So that’s where we sit after an active first couple of weeks of 2023.  Have a great weekend and we’ll see you on Tuesday.  

Today's Future Price Action

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