Key Takeaways with Craig

Happy New Year to all of our In FOCUS readers and welcome to 2023.  Before looking ahead to this week’s events, which include (among others) FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the December Employment report on Friday, we thought we’d take a look back at 2022. 

As you can see in the chart below that was compiled using QuikStrike and CVOL data in a format that should be familiar to most In FOCUS readers, 2022 was indeed a year characterized by outsized volatility in many of CME’s major products. 

  • Except for Corn and Bitcoin, implied volatility finished higher in all of the products we looked at.
  • The lowest volatility levels in E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Gold and Euro FX occurred at the beginning of the year.
  • Bitcoin volatility hit its lowest level on the last day of 2022.
  • Micro 10-Year yields were up by over 154%
  • E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices were down 19% and 32%, respectively.
  • The 2s versus 10s inversion ended at 55 basis points; down from the 81 basis points we saw in late November as you can see in the graph.

We also included two additional columns in today’s chart;  the high and low volatility levels in 2022 so you can see, even in the products that ended off of the highest levels of the year, just how high volatility got during 2022.  The final column is a simple “open-hi-low-close” “mini graph” of the volatility in 2022. 

And with that, we’ll leave 2022 financial and commodity markets behind and tomorrow we’ll begin looking toward 2023 here in the Key Takeaways section.  

Today's Future Price Action

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