Key Takeaways with Craig
After a steep price break on Monday, US Equity prices wandered somewhat aimlessly through the week until today after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole economic summit. Stock prices fell sharply and implied volatility in the options markets spiked after Chairman Powell stated that the Fed may have to “maintain a restrictive policy stance for some time.” Despite that, US Treasury yields were near steady on the day and CME’s FedWatch tool actually shows a slightly lower probability of a 75 basis point (versus 50) hike at the September meeting. After the dust has settled, here are the net price and volatility changes in some of CME’s major products on the week:
- E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices were down by 3 and 4% respectively while vol was sharply higher
- WTI Crude Oil futures prices were higher though vol in the options markets fell slightly
- The Euro FX was down against the US Dollar and remains below parity; vol was near steady on the week but remains elevated
- US Treasury Yields rose and the 2s/10s inversion remains at about 36 basis points
- Cryptocurrency prices fell with the price break in equities and the Bitcoin futures price is back below 21,000
So, what was a somewhat quiet middle of the week turned into a volatile Friday as we approach the week leading into the Labor Day holiday in the United States. Have a nice end of summer week and we’ll see you on Monday!
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