Key Takeaways with Craig
As the sun sets on the first half of 2022 and as we head into the 4th of July weekend in the US, we thought it would be a good time to take a look back at where we’ve come since last New Year’s Eve in terms of price and volatility in some of CME’s major products. Using QuikStrike data, we created the following chart (that should be familiar to regular readers of In FOCUS).
- Implied volatility (“vol”) steals the show; up substantially in every product we looked at; Natural Gas is currently up only 6% (on a relative basis) but was trading near 96% just a few weeks ago.
- E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices are down by 20% and near 30%, respectively, while vol has nearly doubled.
- The 10-Year Treasury Yield has doubled, even after falling over the last couple trading sessions, according to the Micro Treasury Futures contracts.
- The US Dollar has gained substantially on most major currencies, including the Euro FX which is down about 7.6% versus the Dollar.
- As has been well-documented, WTI Crude Oil is up 40% since NYE, even after declining by about 15% from earlier high.
- Bitcoin futures price has fallen nearly 60% and vol has reclaimed its spot at the top of the list.
Anyone who’s been involved in the financial or commodity markets during the first half of the year probably knew the vol numbers would look like they do in the chart below, but we thought the magnitude of the increases was eye-opening.
In observance of Independence Day in the US, we will not be publishing In FOCUS tomorrow nor Monday, but will be back on Tuesday to report on what the beginning of the second half brings us.
Have a safe and happy holiday and we’ll see you on Tuesday!
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