Key Takeaways with Craig

As the sun sets on the first half of 2022 and as we head into the 4th of July weekend in the US, we thought it would be a good time to take a look back at where we’ve come since last New Year’s Eve in terms of price and volatility in some of CME’s major products.  Using QuikStrike data, we created the following chart (that should be familiar to regular readers of In FOCUS). 

  • Implied volatility (“vol”) steals the show; up substantially in every product we looked at; Natural Gas is currently up only 6% (on a relative basis) but was trading near 96% just a few weeks ago. 
  • E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 prices are down by 20% and near 30%, respectively, while vol has nearly doubled.
  • The 10-Year Treasury Yield has doubled, even after falling over the last couple trading sessions, according to the Micro Treasury Futures contracts.
  • The US Dollar has gained substantially on most major currencies, including the Euro FX which is down about 7.6% versus the Dollar.
  • As has been well-documented, WTI Crude Oil is up 40% since NYE, even after declining by about 15% from earlier high. 
  • Bitcoin futures price has fallen nearly 60% and vol has reclaimed its spot at the top of the list. 

Anyone who’s been involved in the financial or commodity markets during the first half of the year probably knew the vol numbers would look like they do in the chart below, but we thought the magnitude of the increases was eye-opening. 

In observance of Independence Day in the US, we will not be publishing In FOCUS tomorrow nor Monday, but will be back on Tuesday to report on what the beginning of the second half brings us.  

Have a safe and happy holiday and we’ll see you on Tuesday!

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.