Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices were choppy at the beginning of the trading day, briefly turning negative, after a negative Q1 GDP reading, but rallied sharply throughout the day to end higher by between close to 2% to over 3%.  We’re not going to speculate on what drove the price rally here in the Key Takeaways section but the equity index options markets at CME took note as implied volatility fell but remains well above the 3 month average closing levels. 

It feels like it might go without saying, but energy markets remained volatile at CME.  WTI Crude Oil futures prices were up by about 3.25% and Natural Gas prices, which have been particularly volatile, were down by about 5.5%.  Despite the continuing price moves in WTI Crude Oil, the implied volatility in the options markets has been relatively steady, ranging from about 50% to about 53% over the last couple of weeks (30-day volatility).  This is high relative to historical norms, but much lower than the spike we saw in March.

Natural Gas implied volatility remains elevated relative to historical norms.  To put it in perspective, using QuikStrike data, we graphed the 30-day implied volatility in both Natural Gas and Bitcoin over the last 12 months.  The volatility of bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) has been fairly well-documented but, as you can see in the orange line, the implied volatility of Nat Gas has traded higher than that of Bitcoin for most of April and remains so today.  

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.