Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices spent most of the day lower and sold off further in afternoon trading action after reports that the White House was urging Americans to leave Ukraine due to a possible Russian invasion.  Unsurprisingly, implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options jumped on the headlines.  US Treasury yields fell today, particularly at the 5 and 10-Year maturities. 

After another active week, which has been the theme so far in 2022, and as Monday marks the halfway point in the month (and Valentines Day), we take stock of price and volatility action on a month-to-date basis below using data powered by QuikStrike:

  • The “feeling” of a volatile couple of weeks is validated by the net change in implied volatility (“vol”) since January 31st.  With the exception of Natural Gas, vol has increased in all of the products we looked at, in many cases, by double digits
  • WTI Crude Oil, was up 4% today while vol jumped as well
  • Gold price action has picked up as has vol, up by a relative 14% since the end of January
  • We’ve talked a lot about Treasury yields lately, but today vol in the options markets jumped again and is up a relative 16% MTD
  • CME grains futures prices continue to rise as well

So, once again, we head into the weekend with much uncertainty, both financial and geo-political.  We hope that everyone has a fun and safe Superbowl weekend and we’ll see you on Monday. 

Today's Future Price Action

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