May 2019 Ags Update

The African swine fever (ASF) epidemic continues to impact the global marketplace. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease with a nearly 100% mortality rate in domesticated swine, according to the Organization of Animal Health (OIE). Since the first official case was reported in China in August 2019, it has spread to several other countries across Asia, and there is no known vaccine. According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, the decrease in China’s pork production caused by ASF could exceed total U.S. production in 2020. China’s tightening supply is becoming more realized as China’s import demand has been increasing, including U.S pork exports to China, despite the 62% tariffs currently in effect. The pork shortage in Asia is expected to support prices for other meats, including beef. Lean Hogs futures have traded close to $100/cwt, up from the $70s in early March, with the 2020 contracts pricing high.

Wet and cool weather continues to plague the Midwest corn-belt, the Central Plains and the Southeast. The extended forecast calls for more of the same, potent rains and cool temperatures to prevail into mid-May. As of April 28, U.S. corn plantings were 15% complete versus the five-year average of 27%. U.S. producers are capable of extremely rapid planting progress, but they need dry enough fields and seeds need higher soil temperatures to germinate.  The weather forecast does not appear to be accommodating for any material catch-up in the next two weeks. Corn is the most immediate crop affected by delayed planting.  There is yield drag potential on corn planted after May 10.  There is clearly the potential for producers to consider the federal insurance “prevent plant option” to recover income losses or switch to planting soybeans.  With new crop soybean prices generally below the cost of production, a shift to soybeans seems less likely.  Analysts suggest a drop-in corn acreage of approximately 3 million acres is likely which represents a 3% drop from planting intentions.

Map: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Use the Pace of Roll tool on Quikstrike to identify the percent of outstanding open interest from one contract month to the next during the roll period.

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Nothing is more important to CME Group than the integrity of our markets. Participants from around the world turn to our agricultural markets for the efficiency, transparency, resiliency, and liquidity they need to manage risk. This paper highlights some of the critical components that make our markets among the best in the world, including our order matching process, the market integrity and risk controls we pioneered, and the resources deployed to monitor the markets for aberrant or disruptive activity.

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