Third party data – Predata

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Predictive analytics for geopolitical risk and market trends.

Discover leading indicators of geopolitical, economic, sector and market risk factors with Predata, now available through CME DataMine.

Using machine learning and a patented methodology, Predata identifies predictive behavior in web traffic data, maps this behavior to global macro and micro trends, and generates a suite of actionable indicators to understand what’s important now and prepare for what may happen next.

Key uses

Quantify attention to thousands of topics across 180+ countries, asset classes, and markets.

Detect off-the-radar shifts and tail-risks by uncovering patterns in online research behavior.

Contextualize the impact of ongoing events by analyzing how indicators change over time.

Explore the data

CME DataMine customers can choose from the following signal suites:

  • Oil
  • Natural Gas
  • Precious Metals
  • Base Metals
  • Grains
  • Livestock
  • Eurodollar
  • Treasuries

Commodities Trade Balance and Geopolitical Risk Factors

  • Detect early indications of supply concerns across refineries, hydrocarbon fields, farming conditions, global diseases and mining facilities
  • Globally monitor geopolitical risk to supply and demand factors for major commodities 

Cross National Analysis of Emerging Trends

  • Compare interest in major banks and national financial sectors to uncover emerging trends around the world
  • Isolate global and local attention to economic factors that affect rates, monetary policy and currencies

Case Studies

Uncovering New Market Regimes

Predata alerted of anomalous research into gold as a likely leading indicator for risk-off sentiment. Online attention to gold as an investment and other safe-haven assets spiked on Aug. 9, 2019, leading Predata to issue an alert on growing risk-off macro sentiment.

On Aug. 14, 2019, global markets had the worst session of 2019 YTD as weak German and Chinese economic data sent recessionary signals in bond markets and drove bearish market sentiment.

Between Aug. 9 and Aug. 14, spot gold prices rose $19.41/oz and the Dow Jones Industrial average fell 894 points.

Getting Ahead of Rally Fades

Predata warned of an overstated interest in the market following news of the Houthi drone strike on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

On Sep. 14, 2019, Yemen’s Houthi militias launched drone attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, taking ~6% of global oil supply offline and causing oil prices to spike more than 13% in the aftermath.

Following the attack, Predata alerted that online attention to other geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained low in the aftermath of the attack.

This indicated that the attack might not have translated to a heightened tension in the region as it might have originally been expected.

While oil prices jumped on lack of supply, because of the lack of ensuing geopolitical escalation, the rally in energy risk assets appeared to fade following the attack.

About Predata

Founded in 2015, Predata uncovers predictive behavior by applying machine learning techniques to online activity. The company has built comprehensive predictive analytics for geopolitical risk, enabling customers to discover, quantify and act on dynamic shifts in online behavior.