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GB: CBI Distributive Trades
| Actual | Previous | |
| Sales Balance | -10% | -55% |
Highlights
The UK retail sector showed tentative signs of stabilisation in October 2026, although persistent demand-side pressures continue to constrain a sustained recovery. The retail sales balance improved significantly from minus 55 percent in September to minus 10 percent in October, marking the slowest annual contraction since April 2025.
Encouragingly, sales relative to seasonal norms improved from minus 40 percent to minus 3 percent, suggesting a partial recovery in consumer spending conditions. Online retail sales (minus 39 percent) and supplier orders (minus 36 percent) also recorded less severe contractions, while wholesale and motor trade activity showed signs of stabilisation.
However, the improvement reflects a moderation in the pace of decline rather than an outright recovery in sales volumes. Retailers anticipate continued contraction in November, with seasonal sales expectations deteriorating to minus 24 percent. Cautious household spending, elevated fuel costs and persistent operating expenses remain significant constraints.
Looking ahead, the Autumn Budget presents an opportunity to strengthen business confidence through targeted cost relief and business rates reform. Nevertheless, a sustainable retail recovery will depend on stronger household purchasing power, improving consumer confidence and a more supportive cost environment.