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GB: CBI Industrial Trends
| Actual | Previous | |
| Orders Balance | -9% | -25% |
Highlights
UK manufacturing moved closer to stabilisation in September 2026, as stronger order books coincided with easing output declines and price expectations. The total order book balance improved from minus 25 percent to minus 9 percent, its strongest position since July 2023 and above the historical average of minus 14 percent. However, export orders weakened from normal levels to minus 9 percent, suggesting that September’s improvement was less dependent on overseas demand.
The output balance rose from minus 17 percent to minus 4 percent, indicating a substantial narrowing of contraction. Nevertheless, declines across 12 of 17 subsectors reveal an uneven improvement, while the expected balance of minus 6 percent suggests that manufacturers anticipate continued weakness through December.
Selling-price expectations eased to 12 percent, approaching the historical average of 8 percent. This signals moderating pricing pressure, although it does not establish that underlying costs have fallen. Meanwhile, stock adequacy dropped to 2 percent, suggesting a smaller inventory cushion. Stronger orders could therefore encourage production, provided demand persists and firms can manage supply constraints. Overall, the findings indicate emerging resilience, but sustained recovery requires broader production growth and firmer investment confidence.