| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.2% | -0.5% | 0.9% |
| Year over Year | 3.3% | 4.5% |
Highlights
New Zealand retail trade volumes weakened sharply in the three months to June, falling 0.5 percent on the quarter after advancing 0.9 percent in the three months to June. Volumes declined on the quarter in eight of fifteen industries in volumes, with a sharp increase in fuel prices driving a particularly big decline in sales volumes. This was offset by strong growth in sales of electrical and electronic goods.
The volume of sales rose 3.3 percent on the year, slowing from growth of 3.3 percent previously. The value of sales rose 6.6 percent on the year, up from 6.1 percent previously.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Real spending has been depressed by rising energy costs. The consensus sees no change in sales on the quarter.
Definition
Retail trade data tracks changes in consumer purchases. A rising retail sales figure can be indicative of rising demand and subsequent inflation. The headline numbers are the percentage change in retail trade from the previous quarter and the percentage change in retail trade from the same quarter in the previous year.
Description
Consumer spending accounts a large portion of the economy, so if you know how consumers are behaving, your will have a good indication as to where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.