Highlights
It's Fed day! The Federal Reserve will release its policy announcement from its Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2 pm ET and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is to meet the press afterwards at 2:30 pm ET.
Markets are pricing in a 64 percent chance that rates will be unchanged and a non-negligible 35 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate increase. The level of uncertainty is higher than usual given Warsh's antipathy to providing guidance on the Fed's intentions, relative to recent past Fed chairs who preferred not to surprise markets. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and other hawks on the FOMC have been readier to talk about the policy outlook, and they appear to be spoiling for a fight to raise rates sooner rather than later. Warsh says he is serious about getting inflation to the Fed's target after a lengthy period of accepting inflation at recent excessive levels. So how and when does he back that up?