Highlights
The consumer price index report at 8:30 am ET followed by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance on Capitol Hill at 10 am ET are the day's highlights.
Expectations for CPI call for a decline of 0.1 percent in overall inflation and a rise of 0.2 percent excluding food and energy on the month. Year on year, the consensus sees gains of 3.8 percent and 2.9 percent. These numbers, down from May, will reflect easing oil prices in June from May. They will not account for the big move up in oil in July with the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Warsh is expected to avoid addressing near-term monetary policy and look forward to the Fed's private discussion at its policy meeting July 28-29. Warsh is not a fan of the standards of Fed transparency built up since the Greenspan years.
The CBOE FedWatch tool says the market is pricing in a 39 percent chance of a rate hike in July. That is up from where it's been -- now that oil prices are surging again. The FedWatch tool suggests the market sees a 61 percent of no rate change this time.