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DE: GfK Consumer Climate
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | -27.2 | -27.6 to -26.0 | -30.6 | -26.6 | -26.8 |
Highlights
Germany’s consumer climate deteriorated sharply in September, with the October figure falling 3.8 points to minus 30.6, 3.4 points below the consensus forecast for the month. The main pressure came from income expectations, which plunged 16.7 points to minus 15.0 as households anticipated that higher energy costs would erode their purchasing power. At the same time, willingness to save rose 6.0 points to 21.5, a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
The contrast with broader economic sentiment is striking. Economic expectations edged up for a fifth consecutive month to minus 3.4, yet willingness to buy slipped to minus 10.8. Consumers appear to recognise the economy’s resilience without feeling confident enough about their own finances to spend.
If energy costs remain elevated, precautionary saving could restrain household consumption even as GDP grows by just over 1 percent in 2026 and 2027. The immediate risk to Germany’s recovery is therefore weak demand rather than a collapse in expectations for the economy as a whole. These latest updates take the RPI to 21 and the RPI-P to 20, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer sentiment expected to decline to minus 27.2 in October from minus 26.6 in September.