| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Employment - M/M | 16,000 | -15.000 to 25.000 | -15,800 | 76,300 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.3% to 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Participation Rate | 66.9% | 67.0% |
Highlights
Labour market conditions in Australia moderated in July after strong employment growth in June. The number of people employed fell by 15,800 persons after a previous increase of 80,300 persons in May, with a small increase in full-time employment outweighed by a bigger drop in part-time employment.
Today's data also show the unemployment rate rose from 4.4 percent in June to 4.5 percent in July. The participation rate fell from to 66.9 percent from 67.0 percent, still close to the record high of 67.2 percent recordedin January 2025
At their policy meeting last week, officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia judged that"labour market conditions have eased by a little more than expected in recent months" and advised that they expect further limited easing in the near-term. Today's data are consistent with that assessment and will likely have little impact on their views about the policy outlook.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Jobs are seen up 15,500 in July, down from the 76,300 increase in June. The consensus looks for the jobless rate flat at 4.4 percent.
Definition
The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.
Description
This report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.
The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.