| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Year over Year | 4.4% | 4.4% to 4.5% | 4.45% | 4.38% |
Highlights
India’s consumer price index rose 4.45 percent on the year in July, up slightly from an increase of 4.38 percent in June. This is the ninth consecutive increase in headline inflation and takes inflation further above the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of two percent to six percent.
The increase in headline inflation was driven by a bigger increase in food and beverage prices, up 5.24 percent after a previous increase of 5.05 percent, with most other categories also recording solid increases. Inflation in urban areas rose from 3.93 percent in June to 3.96 percent in July, while inflation in rural areas picked up from 4.74 percent to 4.84 percent.
At the RBI's most recent policy meeting, held last week, officials left policy rates on hold, judging that there is little evidence to suggest that higher food and fuel prices will boost broader price pressures. Annual headline and core inflation are forecast to be 5.0 percent and 4.3 percent respectively, down from the previous forecasts of 5.1 percent and 4.7 percent respectively.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect CPI up 4.5 percent on year in July, up from 4.4 percent in June.
Definition
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Within the overall CPI basket, food (47 percent) has easily the largest weight of any of the major components and a separate consumer foods price index is also released. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation and the latter is the policy target of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Description
CPI numbers are widely used as a macroeconomic indicator of inflation, as a tool by governments and central banks for inflation targeting and for monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for increase in prices. CPI is therefore considered as one of the most important economic indicators.
CPI numbers presently compiled and released at national level for India reflect the fluctuations in retail prices pertaining to specific segments of population in the country -- industrial workers, agricultural labourers and rural labourers. These indexes do not encompass all the segments of the population in the country and as such do not reflect true picture of the price behavior in the country. To overcome the above, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has started compiling new series of CPI for the entire urban population or CPI (Urban) and CPI for the entire rural population or CPI (Rural), which reflect the changes in the price levels of various goods and services consumed by the urban and rural population.