| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.2% to 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Highlights
The Conference Board’s US leading indicator index was unchanged in September, following August’s 0.1 percent decline and July’s 0.3 percent rise, above the consensus for a 0.2 percent drop in the Econoday forecast. Over the six-month period between March and September 2026, the LEI increased by 0.6 percent, an improvement vs. the 1.1 percent drop over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said five out of the index’s ten components were negative in September, with consumer sentiment continuing to be a significant drag on the index.
“The LEI’s six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow,” the report said.
However, it “is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment,” it added.
The Conference Board upgraded its annual U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.2 percent from 1.9 percent previously and revised its projection for 2027 up to 2.0 percent from 1.8 percent.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index is up 0.3 percent in September, following a 0.1 percent increase in August and a 0.2 percent rise in July. Overall, the CEI is up 0.9 percent in the six-month period ending in September, picking up the pace after a 0.2 percent increase over the previous six-month period.
The CEI’s components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. “All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month,” the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index rose 0.5 percent in September, following the 0.2 percent increase in July and August, respectively.
The LAG jumped 1.0 percent over the six-month period ending in September; double the 0.5 percent increase over the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees a soft reading at minus 0.2 percent in September.