| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.1% to 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
Highlights
The Conference Board’s US leading indicator index fell 0.1 percent in August, following July’s 0.2 percent increase and June’s flat reading, below the consensus for a 0.1 percent rise in the Econoday forecast.
Over the six-month period between February and August 2026, the LEI also declined by 0.1 percent, still an improvement vs. the 0.6 percent drop over the preceding six-month period.
This is the firstly monthly contraction since March 2026. The Conference Board said four out of the index’s ten components were negative in August, with consumer sentiment continuing to be a significant drag on the index. “Due to the latest decline, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned back to slightly negative, suggesting a less certain economic environment ahead,” the report said.
“The economy is still expanding, but growth is expected to slow,” it added.
The Conference Board retained its annual U.S. GDP growth forecast of 1.9 percent for 2026 but revised its projection for 2027 down to 1.8 percent.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index is up 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.2 percent increase in both June and July. Overall, the CEI is up 0.4 percent in the six-month period ending in August, picking up the pace after a 0.3 percent increase over the previous six-month period.
The CEI’s components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. “All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month,” the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index rose 0.2 percent in August, matching the 0.2 percent rise in July, following a 0.1 percent contraction in June.
The LAG jumped 0.9 percent over the six-month period ending in August, speeding up after a 0.3 percent increase over the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
LEI expected up a marginal 0.1 percent on the month in August versus 0.2 percent in July.