| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.2% to 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
Highlights
The Conference Board’s US leading indicator index rose 0.2 percent in July, following June’s 0.1 percent decline and May’s 0.2 percent uptick, higher than the consensus for a 0.1 percent bump in the Econoday forecast. Over the six-month period between January and July 2026, the LEI also rose 0.2 percent, rebounding from the 1.3 percent drop over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said most of the index’s components were positive in July, while consumer sentiment continues to weigh on the index. “With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead,” the report said.
“The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households,” it added.
The Conference Board retained its annual U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 1.9 percent for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index is up 0.2 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent rise in May. Overall, the CEI is up 0.5 percent in the six-month period ending in July, picking up the pace after no change over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. “All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month,” the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index is also up 0.2 percent in July, improving from a 0.1 percent dip in June and a 0.2 percent contraction in May. “Despite the month-over-month increase, the level of the index was still below the preliminary June level of 120.5 (2016=100), due to downward revisions from April to June 2026,” the report said.
However, the LAG grew 0.8 percent over the six-month period ending in July, speeding up after a 0.4 percent increase over the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A modest 0.1 percent increase is the call.