| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.1% to 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Highlights
The Conference Board's US leading indicator index rose 0.1 percent in May, following April's 0.2 percent uptick and March's 0.6 percent decline, and as expected by the consensus in the Econoday forecast. Over the six-month period between November 2025 and May 2026, the LEI fell 0.3 percent, a much slower decline than the 1.3 percent drop over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said the bounce in stock prices, combined with the interest rate spread; provided the boost to the LEI in May, while consumer sentiment continues to weigh on the index. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead, the report warned.
Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costsespecially gas and energyare rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping, it added.
On the plus side, business investment related to the AI boom continues to support economic growth, although the Conference Board expects it to be weaker than in recent years, even as the labor market remains fairly healthy.
The Conference Board has revised its annual U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.8 percent, up from 1.7 percent year-over-year, for 2026.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index was up 0.2 percent in May, following a 0.1 percent rise in April and a 0.1 percent contraction in March. Overall, the CEI is up 0.6 percent in the six-month period ending in May, picking up the pace from the 0.2 percent increase over the previous six-month period.
The CEI's componentspayroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial productionare included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in May, the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index was down 0.1 percent in May, taking a slight step backwards following a 0.5 percent increase in April and a 0.3 percent rise in March. However, the LAG grew 0.9 percent over the six-month period ending in May, speeding up after no change over the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A marginal 0.1 percent increase is the call.
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.