| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.3% to -0.3% | 0.1% | -0.6% |
Highlights
The Conference Board's US leading indicator index rebounded by 0.1 percent in April, following March's 0.6 percent drop and February's 0.3 percent rise, and better than the -0.3 percent consensus in the Econoday forecast. Over the six-month period between October 2025 and April 2026, the LEI fell 0.7 percent, a much slower decline than the 1.0 percent drop over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said the bounce in stock prices, combined with a rise in multi-unit building permits; provide the slight boost to the LEI in April. Strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side, the report warned.
Higher gasoline and energy costspaired with weak hiringwill likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers, it added.
The Conference Board has revised its annual U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.7 percent, up from 1.6 percent year-over-year, for 2026.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index was up 0.3 percent in April, following flat readings in March and February. Overall, the CEI is up 0.8 percent in the six-month period ending in April, picking up the pace from the 0.1 percent contraction rate over the previous six-month period.
The CEI's componentspayroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial productionare included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in April, led by industrial production, the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index was up 0.4 percent in April, building on a 0.3 percent increase in March and a 0.2 percent rise in February. The LAG grew 0.8 percent over the six-month period ending in April, speeding up from the 0.5 percent rise over the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Poor consumer sentiment and low building permits expected to depress the index again after a similar result in February and March.
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.