| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 2.0% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.2% | -2.4% |
Highlights
Domestic pipeline inflation is heating up, with the March result showing a 2.0 percent month-on-month increase as energy prices spiked. From a year ago, prices rose 0.2 percent, and while that may seem like a marginal increase, prices were 2.4 percent lower.
Prices for coking coal and refined petroleum products saw a 56.8 percent increase month-on-month in March after a 9.8 percent rise in February. Compared to the same period a year ago, prices are up 54.7 percent. This will ripple through the broader economy as manufacturers, already under strain and cutting prices to hold market share, will have a dilemma about passing on some or all of the price gains or suffer further pain. Neither is a good option.
Transportation equipment prices rose 0.1 percent in March and 0.9 percent from a year ago.
Total industry including foreign markets saw prices rise 2.4 percent month-on-month and 0.3 percent year-on-year after respective declines of 1.2 percent and 3.2 percent the previous month.
In the coming month, higher energy prices will persist as the conflict continued and with it now entering its third month, no immediate relief from higher energy prices will be likely.
Definition
The producer price indices (PPI) measure transaction prices, exclusive of VAT, for goods from industrial activities sold on the French market. Construction is excluded. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer and, in contrast to the consumer price index (CPI), excludes VAT and other deductible taxed associated with turnover.
Description
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).
Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.