| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.8% | 2.8% to 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Highlights
Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in May, and 2.4 percent on the year led by sharp increases for energy prices. The results match the preliminary estimate and the median of an Econoday survey of economists' forecasts.
Energy prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month and were 16.6 percent higher than their May 2025 level. Within the sector, petroleum prices fell 1.9 percent month-on-month but were 31.1 percent above year-ago levels.
Other major categories didn't see the same degree of price changes as the energy sector. This is reflected in the core inflation measure which rose 0.3 percent on the month and 1.5 percent on the year.
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices which uses the same methodology across European economics rose 0.1 percent from April and 2.8 percent from a year ago, also matching the preliminary estimates and the Econoday median forecast.
There is no getting around the fact that energy prices are, and will continue to remain elevated as the conflict in the Middle East is now well into its fourth month. The European Central Bank raised interest rates in response, and the question is how much higher will they go.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.1 percent on the month and up 2.4 percent on year.
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.