| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Highlights
Retail sales eked out a marginal gain in March of 0.1 percent from February, seasonally adjusted, and were 0.5 percent above their year ago level. The previous month's results were revised lower, with the month-on-month figure now at minus 0.1 (0.4) and the year-on-year result at 0.4 (0.9).
Sales of motor fuel were the main driver behind the year-on-year increase, rising 5.3 percent in March following a 0.5 percent decline in February. The overall result excluding fuel was a 0.2 percent year-on-year decline. Another measure which excludes sales at service stations showed sales were flat.
Sales of household appliances, DIY, textiles and furniture fell 5.2 percent in March on a year-on-year volume basis, the third consecutive month of decline. Consumers also pulled back on information and communication equipment sales which fell 1.0 percent in March, extending a 3.2 percent February decline.
Recreation and cultural goods sales on the other hand were up 7.0 percent in March after a 0.1 percent increase in February.
With a full month of results in, the consumer will not have contributed much to overall spending for GDP and with the conflict in the Middle East now having entered its third month, the start to the second quarter will also likely be muted.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.
Description
Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.