| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥-1,052.20B | ¥-1,103.60B to ¥-920.00B | ¥-1,105.61B | ¥-634.5B | ¥-638.34B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 26.0% | 24.0% to 26.1% | 28.0% | 27.8% | 27.9% |
| Exports - Y/Y | 17.7% | 15.9% to 19.6% | 19.3% | 23.2% |
Highlights
Japanese export values maintained a double-digit percentage gain in August, up 19.3% on the year, as the auto industry has overcome the initial impact of stiff U.S. tariffs slapped last year while global demand for memory chips and non-ferrous metals remains strong. It is their 12th straight increase and follows a 23.2% gain in July that sent exports to a fresh record high of ¥11.51 trillion. The increase was led by automobiles, computer chips and semiconductor-producing equipment, as seen in the prior month.
Import values marked a seventh straight rise, up 28.0%, after soaring a revised 27.9% to score yet another record high of ¥12.15 trillion in July. The Mideast conflict has pushed up energy and transportation costs. The value of the yen, which has firmed in recent weeks, is still below year-earlier levels, keeping Japanese imports expensive. The increase was driven by crude oil, memory chips and computers, as largely seen in recent months.
Japan’s trade balance recorded a fourth straight deficit, with the shortfall widening to ¥1.11 trillion (¥1,105.61 billion) from a revised ¥638.34 billion deficit in July. It compares with a ¥294.09 billion deficit in August 2025.
The August trade data showed import volumes rose 2.7% on the year (vs. +1.2% in July) for the third consecutive rise and import values of crude oil were up 58.7% after surging 87.8% in July. Japanese refineries have been bringing more crude oil from the United States and other producers to partly offset the impact of the on-and-off blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, which has slashed Gulf state oil production and exports. Those alternative energy purchases are more expensive because of longer transportation routes.
Details:
Japan Aug exports +19.3% y/y (July +23.2% at record high ¥11.51 trillion), 12th straight rise; median forecast +17.7%
Japan Aug exports post 7th double-digit pct gain this year in reaction to y/y drops from May to Aug 2025 caused by high US tariffs on autos, metals
Japan Aug imports +28.0% y/y (July revised +27.9% at record high ¥12.15 trln), 7th straight rise; median forecast +26.0%
Japan Aug imports mark 6th double-digit pct rise this year as Iran war, weak yen have pushed up crude oil prices, general import costs
Japan Aug trade deficit ¥1.105 trln (July revised ¥638.34 bln deficit); 4th straight deficit; median forecast ¥1.05 trln (¥1,052.20 bln) deficit
Japan Aug export y/y rise led by computer chips, autos, semiconductor-making equipment, as seen in July
Japan Aug import y/y rise led by crude oil, memory chips, computers, as largely seen in recent months
Japan Aug exports to US +24.9% y/y, 6th straight rise (July +22.0%), led by autos, chip-making equipment, construction/mining machines
Japan Aug exports to EU +11.0%, 13th straight rise (July +19.1%), led by autos, chip-making equipment, mineral fuels
Japan Aug exports to China +20.6% y/y, 6th straight rise (July +25.8%), led by computer chips, chip-making equipment, non-ferrous metals, as in July
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are expected to post another double-digit percentage gain for the sixth straight month on the year in August after reaching a record high in the previous month, driven by gains in automobiles, computer chips and semiconductor-producing equipment, continuing a trend seen in recent months. The weak yen was also seen to have boosted both export and import values.
Import values are expected to have risen sharply again in August, as Japan continued to actively acquire crude oil, chipmaking equipment and non-ferrous metals. Import values had already reached a record high in July.
Robust oil imports amid the yen’s continued weakness are expected to push the country’s trade balance into deficit for the fourth straight month, with the shortfall seen topping ¥1 trillion for the first time in seven months.
Exports are seen rising for the 12th straight month in August, up 17.7 percent on the year after increasing 23.2 percent a month earlier. Export values surged to ¥11.51 trillion in July, breaking the previous record of ¥10.98 trillion reached in March 2026.
Exports to the U.S. had been recovering for five straight months through July. Auto exports appeared to have recovered, partly due to a year-earlier base effect related to the Trump tariffs, although actual demand appeared to be peaking out.
Imports are expected to rise 26.0 percent in August after being revised up to a 27.9 percent rise in July from the initial 27.8 percent, as robust oil imports amid lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to keep international prices elevated. The weak yen is also expected to have pushed up the value of imports. In July, import values hit a record high of ¥12.15 trillion, exceeding the previous high of ¥11.34 trillion reached only a month earlier.
These trends in trade activity are expected to bring Japan’s trade balance into deficit for a fourth straight month in August and widen the shortfall to ¥1.052 trillion, the highest since January, from a revised deficit of ¥638.34 billion a month earlier.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.