| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥-670.70B | ¥-708.80B to ¥-250.0B | ¥-634.5B | ¥-406.9B | ¥-409.93B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 26.5% | 21.0% to 29.2% | 27.8% | 25.4% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 21.2% | 19.0% to 23.8% | 23.2% | 19.3% |
Highlights
Japanese export values surged 23.2% on the year to ¥11.51 trillion in July for the 11th straight gain, surpassing the previous high of ¥10.98 trillion reached in March 2026, as the auto industry has weathered the drag from stiff U.S. tariffs and global demand for memory chips and non-ferrous metals remains strong. Those factors prompted the government to upgrade its view on exports in June in its monthly economic report to say they are “showing signs of a pickup” vs. “largely flat.” The increase was led by automobiles, computer chips and semiconductor-producing equipment, largely as seen in recent months.
Import values rose 27.8% for the sixth straight increase, hitting yet another record high at ¥12.15 trillion and exceeding the previous high level of ¥11.34 trillion seen the previous month as the weak yen has eroded Japan’s purchasing power and the lingering Mideast conflict kept energy and transportation costs elevated. The double-digit increase was driven by crude oil, computer chips and non-ferrous metals, as seen in June.
A rare Japan-U.S. dollar-selling market intervention at the end of July pushed down the U.S. currency to around ¥157.20 from above ¥163 but Bank of Japan data showed the dollar averaged at ¥162.55 during Tokyo trading hours in July, still much stronger than ¥146.71 seen a year earlier.
The July trade data showed import volumes rose 1.2% on the year (vs. +1.1% in June and -6.8% in May) and import values of crude oil were up 87.8% after surging 59.3% in June, which the first rise in many months. Japanese refineries have been bringing more crude oil from the United States and other producers to partly offset the impact of the on-and-off blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, which has slashed Gulf state oil production and exports. Those alternative energy purchases are more expensive because of longer transportation routes.
Japan’s trade balance posted a third straight deficit, with the shortfall widening sharply to ¥634.5 billion (consensus ¥670.70 billion in deficit) from a revised ¥409.93 billion deficit in June. It compares with a ¥156.28 billion deficit in July 2025.
Details:
Japan July exports +23.2% y/y (June +19.3%), 11th straight rise; median forecast +21.2%
Japan July imports +27.8% y/y (June +25.4%), 6th straight rise; median forecast +26.5%
Japan July trade deficit ¥634.5 bln (June revised ¥409.93 bln deficit); 3rd straight deficit; median forecast ¥670.70 bln deficit
Japan July exports hit record high of ¥11.51 trln on strong demand for autos, computer chips, surpassing previous high of ¥10.98 trln in March 2026
Japan July imports hit record high of ¥12.15 trln vs. previous high of ¥11.34 trln in June as Iran war, weak yen boost crude oil prices, import costs
Japan July record high imports led by higher costs for crude oil, chipmaking equipment, non-ferrous metals, largely as seen in recent months
Japan July trade deficit ¥634.5 bln (June revised ¥409.93 bln deficit); 3rd straight deficit; median forecast ¥670.70 bln deficit
Japan July exports to U.S. +22.0% y/y at record high level, 5th straight rise (June revised +12.9%), led by autos, drugs, engines
Japan July exports to EU +19.1%, 12th straight rise (June revised +20.2%), led by autos, chipmaking equipment, ships
Japan July exports to China and Asia, imports from those sources reach all-time high
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese exports are projected to increase sharply in July, rising for an 11th straight month on the year and extending the recent upward trend on robust global demand for semiconductors, chipmaking equipment and automobiles. Imports are expected to grow for a sixth consecutive month as the resource-poor country scrambles to diversify its sources of oil purchases away from the Middle East, pushing up import costs.
Robust imports, also boosted by the yen’s weakness, are seen pushing the trade balance into a deficit for a third straight month in July, at 670.70 billion yen, following a deficit of 409.93 billion yen a month earlier.
Japanese exports are expected to remain resilient despite additional U.S. tariffs and ongoing deterioration in diplomatic relations with China, as exports to both countries climbed for the four months through June, with Japanese auto exports to the U.S. pointing to a strong recovery. Exports are seen rising 21.2 percent on the year in July after jumping a revised 19.3 percent a month earlier.
The value of exports in June climbed to the second-highest level on record at a revised 10.93 trillion yen, led by increases in automobiles, computer chips and non-ferrous metals. The gains were largely in line with recent trends, with demand from countries around the world boosted by projects involving the construction of data centers and other developments related to artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, imports are also expected to continue showing strong growth in July, with data from the Ministry of Finance indicating that imports through around mid-July rose 22.5 percent from a year earlier. Taking this result into account, imports are expected to rise 26.5 percent in July after increasing 25.4 percent a month earlier.
Imports are seen rising as Japan has to secure more expensive crude oil from regions outside the Middle East. In June, besides crude oil, the increase was also driven by higher values of computer chips and non-ferrous metals.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.