| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥-96.25B | ¥-200.70B to ¥67.80B | ¥301.9B | ¥667.0B | ¥643.0B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 8.8% | 7.1% to 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 9.4% | 8.5% to 10.0% | 14.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% |
Highlights
Japanese export values rose 14.8% on the year in April for an eighth consecutive monthly increase, reaching ¥10.5 trillion, the second-highest level on record. The double-digit gain was led by shipments of computer chips, non-ferrous metals and engines.
Exports to Europe continued to post solid growth despite persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Exports to China also rose for a second straight month despite ongoing concerns over diplomatic relations between the two countries. Shipments to the U.S. increased for a second consecutive month despite continued stiff trade tariffs.
Import values rose for a third straight month in April, up 9.7% on the year after a revised 10.9% increase in March. The gain was driven by imports of computer chips, oil products and non-ferrous metals.
Japan's trade balance remained in surplus for a third consecutive month, posting a ¥301.9 billion surplus in April following a revised ¥643.0 billion surplus in March. The result was stronger than the median forecast for a ¥96.25 billion deficit.
Details:
Japan Apr exports +14.8% y/y (Mar revised +11.5%), 8th straight rise; median forecast +9.4%
Japan Apr imports +9.7% y/y (Mar revised +10.9%), 3rd straight rise; median forecast +8.8%
Japan Apr trade surplus ¥301.9 bln (Mar revised ¥643.00 bln surplus); 3rd straight surplus; median forecast ¥96.25 bln deficit
Japan Apr export y/y rise led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, engines
Japan Apr import y/y rise led by computer chips, oil products, non-ferrous metals
Japan Apr exports to US +9.5% y/y, 2nd straight rise (Mar +3.4%), led by computer chips, construction/mining equipment, heavy electrical equipment
Japan Apr exports to EU +26.9%, 9th straight rise (Mar revised +16.1%), led by autos, engines, construction/mining equipment
Japan Apr exports to China +15.5% y/y, 2nd straight rise (Mar revised +17.7%) led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, raw materials
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are expected to increase in April for an eighth consecutive month, as the underlying strength of the global economy and continuing solid auto demand in Europe support shipments. The yen’s weakness also helped lift export values but at the same time boosted import values, which is expected to push the country’s trade balance into deficit for the first time in three months.
The country’s exports are seen posting a 9.4 percent rise on the year in April, slowing from a revised 11.5 percent gain in March. In March, the double-digit increase was driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and mineral fuels as seen in recent months. Japanese automakers and steelmakers are weathering the storm of Trump tariffs.
The yen’s weakness against the dollar, down more than 8 percent from the same period last year, resulted in higher export and import values. Oil imports from the Middle East are believed to have slowed amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iraq.
April imports are seen rising 8.8 percent from a year earlier after increasing 10.9 percent in March. Imports continued to show solid gains in March, led by purchases of telecommunications equipment, including smartphones, as well as non-ferrous metals and computer chips.
Against this trend, the country’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to fall into deficit in April for the first time in three months. The trade balance is projected to show a deficit of 96.25 billion yen compared with a revised surplus of 643.0 billion yen a month earlier.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.