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GB: CBI Industrial Trends
| Actual | Previous | |
| Orders Balance | -28% | -30% |
Highlights
The latest survey points to a manufacturing sector that is stabilising but not yet recovering. Output volumes continued to contract in the three months to February, though the pace of decline moderated sharply (minus 14 percent from minus 25 percent), while total order books climbed to minus 28 percent, from minus 30 percent the previous month, suggesting the downturn is losing intensity rather than reversing. Expectations for the next quarter indicate a similar trajectory, implying firms anticipate the persistence of subdued conditions rather than an imminent rebound.
Weak demand remains the central constraint. Total and export order books are still well below historical norms, signalling that both domestic and external markets lack sufficient momentum. The breadth of contraction, spanning 13 of 17 subsectors, confirms that softness is systemic rather than sector-specific.
However, inventory positions improved, with stocks deemed more than adequate. This likely reflects demand shortfalls rather than production efficiency, raising the risk of further output restraint if sales fail to strengthen. Meanwhile, elevated price expectations (26 percent) indicate that cost pressures remain embedded, complicating the outlook for margins and competitiveness.
Taken together, the latest data depict a sector transitioning from acute contraction to fragile stabilisation, where recovery hinges less on supply conditions and more on restoring business and consumer confidence.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly