| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.3% |
Highlights
The Conference Board's US leading indicator index fell 0.2 percent in December, continuing to its slide following November's 0.3 percent drop and October's 0.1 percent dip, and bigger than the -0.1 percent consensus in the Econoday forecast. Over the six-month period between June and December 2025, the LEI fell 1.2 percent, a much slower decline than the 2.8 percent plunge over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said persistently weak consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders dragged down the LEI in December. Labor market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year, the report added.
The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025, it warned.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index was up 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent bump in November and 0.1 percent drop in October. Overall, the CEI is up 0.3 percent in the six-month period ending in December, slowing down from the 0.4 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI's componentspayroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial productionare included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States.
Nearly all improved in December, the report said although it notes that the Conference Board estimated December's personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing, and trade sales data.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index was down 0.1 percent in December, erasing a 0.1 percent rise in November. The LAG was unchanged over the six-month period ending in December, down significantly from the 1.2 percent rise over the prior six months.
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.