https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
GB: Labour Market Report
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Claimant Count - M/M | 26.8 | 24.7 | 17.1 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | ||
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.1% to 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | |
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Highlights
The UK labour market in early 2026 demonstrated that payrolled employment has edged down over both annual and monthly horizons, while vacancies have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, an indicator that firms are becoming more cautious in hiring.
Despite this moderation, the labour market is not in distress. The employment rate remains broadly stable at 75.0 percent, and unemployment, although slightly higher than a year ago, has declined in the most recent quarter. This suggests a rebalancing phase, where labour demand is easing without triggering widespread job losses.
A key tension lies in wages. Nominal earnings was 3.6 percent for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and 3.8 percent for total earnings (including bonuses) in December 2025 to February 2026, yet annual real wage growth remains marginal at 0.2 percent for regular pay, and 0.4 percent for total pay in December 2025 to February 2026, implying that households are experiencing only limited improvements in purchasing power. The stronger wage growth in the public sector, partly driven by earlier pay settlements, contrasts with more subdued private sector dynamics.
Meanwhile, rising economic inactivity and declining vacancies point to structural frictions, including participation constraints and cautious employer sentiment. The increase in the claimant count on a monthly basis reinforces short-term pressures, although the annual decline tempers concern.
In essence, the latest report suggests a labour market transitioning, where resilience persists but momentum is clearly weakening, posing a delicate challenge for policymakers balancing inflation control with employment stability. These updates take the RPI to 19 and the RPI-P to 22, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The jobless rate is expected flat at 5.2 percent.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.