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EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Economic Sentiment | 97.1 | 96.4 to 97.6 | 98.4 | 96.9 | 97.1 |
| Industry Sentiment | -6.0 | -6.7 to -6.0 | -5.3 | -6.1 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | -15.5 | -15.9 |
Highlights
Economic sentiment in the euro area strengthened in August 2026, suggesting that economic activity is gradually regaining momentum. The economic sentiment indicator rose by 1.3 points to 98.4, while employment expectations increased to 98.9. Although both remained slightly below their long-term average of 100, their recovery signals improving business confidence and labour-market prospects.
The improvement was primarily business-led. Confidence increased in services, industry and retail trade, supported by stronger demand expectations, production plans and near-term business prospects. France and Germany recorded notable gains, although Spain’s sharp decline demonstrates that the recovery remains uneven across major economies. Industrial conditions also remain fragile, as weaker order books and deteriorating export demand partly offset improved production expectations.
Households were less optimistic than businesses. Consumer confidence remained broadly unchanged, while weaker major-purchase intentions indicate continued caution over disposable income and the wider economy. Moreover, rising consumer inflation expectations contrast with declining selling-price expectations in industry and retail. In summary, the findings suggest a modest but incomplete recovery as employment prospects and business confidence are improving, but weak consumer demand, export uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns continue to constrain growth.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Economic sentiment expected nearly flat at 97.1 in August from 96.9 in July.
Definition
Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.
Description
The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.