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EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Economic Sentiment | 92.3 | 91.0 to 93.5 | 93.5 | 93.0 | 93.2 |
| Industry Sentiment | -8.0 | -8.6 to -7.0 | -8.0 | -7.7 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | -19 | -20.6 |
Highlights
The May 2026 euro area economic sentiment data presents a picture of cautious stabilisation amid persistent structural fragilities. Although the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) rose 0.3 points to 93.5, its continued position below the long-term benchmark of 100 suggests that economic confidence across the euro area remains subdued. The modest improvement in services and consumer confidence indicates some resilience in domestic demand conditions, particularly as households became less pessimistic about their future financial situation and spending intentions. Germany, France, and Poland also recorded mild sentiment improvements, reflecting pockets of recovery within major EU economies.
However, the overall economic outlook remains constrained by weakening industrial, retail, and construction activity. Declining production expectations, deteriorating order books, and weaker construction confidence point to slowing business momentum and investment activity. Although the employment expectations indicator improved to 94.7, it also remains below historical norms, suggesting that labour market optimism is still fragile despite stronger hiring intentions in services and retail trade.
Inflationary pressures continue to pose a concern. While selling price expectations eased across sectors, both businesses and consumers still perceive price levels as elevated. Nevertheless, the decline in the economic uncertainty indicator suggests that firms and households may be gradually adapting to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, potentially supporting moderate economic stabilisation in the months ahead. These updates take the RPI and RPI-P to 2, meaning that economic activities continue to align with the expectations of the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Business suffering weight of rising energy prices with sentiment expected down to 92.3 in May from 93.0 in April.
Definition
Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.
Description
The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.