https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Economic Sentiment | 96.6 | 98.3 | 98.2 |
| Industry Sentiment | -7.0 | -7.1 | -7.2 |
| Consumer Sentiment | -16.3 | -12.2 | -12.3 |
Highlights
Economic sentiment in the Eurozone fell in March to 96.6 in March, its lowest level since 96.1 in September, from 98.2 in February, with consumer sentiment particularly hard hit.
While industrial sentiment was relatively stable in March at minus 7.0 versus minus 7.2 in February, consumers were far more pessimistic. The March reading was minus 16.3 versus minus 12.3 the previous month, with the conflict in the Middle East likely playing a large part. The retail sector was also more negative at minus 7.2 in March than February's minus 5.2.
Among the major economies, industrial sentiment improved in Germany to minus 14.5 in March from minus 15.2 the month before, while in France it deteriorated to minus 8.6 versus minus 5.7. In Italy it was also somewhat improved at minus 5.8 from minus 6.3.
For all three economies, production expectations improved, supporting other indicators showing optimism among manufacturers. So far, however, this has not resulted in notable output increases. Order books in Germany and Italy improved, while deteriorating in France.
The situation in the Middle East absent a quick resolution or opening of the Straights of Hormuz, will continue to weigh on sentiment for businesses and consumers. Further concerns about inflation will dampen the outlook as well.
Definition
Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.
Description
The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.