https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Economic Sentiment | 99.6 | 98.5 to 100.0 | 98.3 | 99.4 | 99.3 |
| Industry Sentiment | -6.6 | -7.0 to -6.0 | -7.1 | -6.8 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | -12.2 | -12.4 |
Highlights
Euro area sentiment data for February 2026 point to a fragile and uneven recovery, with weakening confidence concentrated in labour-intensive sectors. The economic sentiment indicator fell to 98.3, remaining below its long-term average, signalling that economic momentum has yet to fully stabilise. The decline was driven primarily by the services sector, typically the backbone of the euro area economy, where deteriorating demand assessments and weaker expectations suggest slowing activity ahead. Construction confidence also weakened, reflecting persistent structural softness linked to high borrowing costs and subdued housing demand.
In contrast, industry and consumer sentiment held broadly steady, indicating resilience rather than recovery. Improved order-book assessments across the industry suggest stabilising external demand, while retail confidence rose modestly, supported by better stock management and past business performance. However, employment expectations declined further to 97.6, highlighting growing caution among employers, particularly in services and construction. This suggests firms are prioritising cost control and productivity over workforce expansion.
Encouragingly, declining economic uncertainty indicates improving visibility, yet elevated price expectations and labour hoarding signal continued structural caution. In summary, the euro area economy appears to be in a holding pattern, avoiding deterioration but lacking sufficient confidence, employment momentum, and demand strength to support a robust and self-sustaining recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Not much change expected. Economic sentiment predicted at 99.6 for February versus 99.4 in January. Industry sentiment seen at minus 6.6 versus minus 6.8 in January.
Definition
Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.
Description
The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.