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EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Economic Sentiment | 99.4 | 96.7 | 97.2 |
| Industry Sentiment | -6.8 | -9.0 | -8.5 |
| Consumer Sentiment | -12.4 | -13.1 | -13.2 |
Highlights
Economic confidence strengthened notably at the start of 2026, signalling a cautiously improving outlook across the EU and the euro area. The economic sentiment indicator rose close to its long-term average, reflecting the strongest confidence levels since mid-2022. This rebound was broad-based, supported by improvements across nearly all major sectors and reinforced by sharp gains in the EU's largest economies, particularly France and Germany.
Industry and services led the recovery, with firms reporting better order books, production expectations and recent demand conditions. Consumer confidence also advanced, driven by improved perceptions of household finances and stronger intentions to make major purchases. Retail sentiment benefited from brighter business expectations, although recent trading conditions remained uneven. Construction was the sole weak spot, with confidence edging lower as employment expectations softened, despite fewer reported capacity constraints.
Labour market signals were encouraging. Employment expectations reached their highest levels in a year, supported by hiring plans in industry, services and retail, while labour hoarding continued to decline. Price pressures showed tentative easing, especially at the consumer level, and uncertainty indicators remained stable. In summary, the latest update point to a gradual recovery in confidence, underpinned by improving demand conditions and stabilising inflation expectations.
Definition
Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.
Description
The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.