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US: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
| Actual | Previous | |
| Year over Year | 2.2% | 2.3% |
Highlights
Year-ahead inflation expectations among firms surveyed in the Atlanta Fed district eased to 2.2 percent on average in July from 2.3 percent in June, 2.4 percent in May, and versus 2.5 percent in July 2025.
Firms say unit input costs are up 2.3 percent on average in the past year in July versus 2.4 percent in June, 2.4 percent in May, and versus 2.3 percent in July 2025.
Global energy costs declined in July from June peaks, which would tend to account for the change in inflation expectations and the view of input costs during July. In August, sadly, energy prices appear headed back to their recent highs and possibly higher, depending on what happens with the US-Iran war.
Inflation expectations appear to have rolled over after rising to a recent peak of 2.8 percent in April 2025 from a low 2.0 percent in December 2024, presumably reflecting the rise and fall of tariff fears. Before that the survey peaked at 3.8 percent in March 2022 before trending down to the low of 2.0 percent in December of 2024.